Economy

“It’s the economy stupid” is a common phrase in American politics. The message is clear; ultimately it’s economic issues that concern voters the most. Given the current economic climate this will certainly be the case in 2012. A recent Rasmussen poll showed that 80% of US voters consider economic issues to be very important in determining how they will vote. Republicans have been critical of the 2009 stimulus plan signed into law by President Obama, complaining that it has not created the jobs promised. The Tea Party movement began as a direct response to perceived out of control spending. Republicans believe that tax cuts will encourage businesses to grow and hire new workers. Obama has stated that Republican plans will not stimulate job growth and cater primarily to the needs of the richest Americans. Similarly, the Occupy Wall Street movement has emerged in America in the last several months in response to growing economic inequality. Job growth has been strong the last several months, but economic recoveries can be unpredictable. A downturn right before November could make voters forget very quickly about the positive job reports from months past.

The $US14 trillion federal debt is also a central issue on the campaign trail. Candidates face difficult questions as to what steps should be taken to reduce the debt, and how quickly this should be done. Obama’s chances at re-election will very much hinge on the state of the economy. If people are convinced things are improving his prospects will be good in the general election, but if not, he will face a challenging path to a second term.

Health Care

The major legislative accomplishment of President Obama’s first term has been the passage of the Affordable Care Act in the spring of 2010. A recent poll shows that a majority of likely voters, 55%, favour repealing at least some portions of the law, although responses fluctuate based on how questions are worded. All Republicans have vowed to overturn the legislation if elected, and have argued that free market solutions can help insure more Americans without a government takeover of the process. You can read about the ACA's passage here, and about what it actually does here.

In June the Supreme Court narrowly upheld the ACA with Chief Justice John Roberts ruling that the individual mandate was justified under Congress’s taxing power and thus constitutional. The decision ensures that the ACA will remain a central issue on the campaign. Mitt Romney has vowed to try and repeal the law if elected president.

Foreign Policy

While the focus of the campaign will be on the economic situation at home, the role the United States plays globally remains an important topic. The timetable for withdrawal from Afghanistan will certainly be a matter of debate, although the threat of a nuclear Iran has emerged as the major foreign policy issue.

Israeli officials have become increasingly vocal about the threat of Iran building nuclear weapons. There is some chance that Israel will launch an airstrike on Iran’s nuclear facilities before the November election. President Obama stated that “A nuclear-armed Iran is completely counter to Israel's security interests. But it is also counter to the national security interests of the United States." However, the Republican candidates have still heavily criticised Obama for his handling of the situation, commenting that he hasn’t done enough to support Israel and its concerns.

With a large federal debt, and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq still on everyone’s mind, there is a feeling amongst a large section of the population that the United States needs to take a less interventionist foreign policy in the near future. Still, candidates will need to balance these sentiments against those who believe that America needs to continue its aggressive campaign against terrorism.

Social Issues

Social issues weren’t expected to be especially important in this election, but they have taken on a prominent role in the Republican primaries. First, conservatives were outraged by the Obama administration’s decision to require that nearly all employers include birth control coverage in the health care plans offered to their employees. President Obama backed down on the issue, but many were still upset over what they saw as an infringement on religious freedom.

Rick Santorum had already broached the subject of birth control in October, “One of the things I will talk about, that no president has talked about before, is I think the dangers of contraception in this country.”

Legislatures in several states have also recently passed anti-abortion bills. A law in Texas, for example, requires women to undergo an ultrasound and have the doctor give a description of the fetus, 24 hours before they can get an abortion.

While these issues may appeal to Republican base, they also run the risk of alienating female voters and other moderates. It seems likely that Mitt Romney will try and downplay these topics in the general election, and that economic issues will once again take centre stage. Romney is now pro-life, but supported legalised abortion until 2005. Barack Obama is pro-choice.

Same sex marriage is another contentious social issue within the country. Polls show increasing support for gay marriage with around half the country being in favour of it. Still, opposition remains strong amongst the religious conservatives who make up a large percentage of the base of the Republican Party. Mitt Romney is against gay marriage, and while Barack Obama has been publicly opposed in the past, he now says that his views on the issue are evolving.

Immigration

In this era of intense partisanship it seems unlikely that comprehensive immigration reform will come anytime soon. Still candidates will face many questions about not only how to respond to illegal immigrants entering the country, but what to do about the 11 million illegal immigrants currently living in the United States. The right wing of the Republican Party has favoured greatly increasing border security and generally do not favour amnesty for illegal aliens. Rick Perry came under scrutiny from opponents and conservative voters for allowing the children of illegal aliens to pay in-state tuition rates at the University of Texas. Democrats have generally favoured proposals that would cut down on illegal immigration while providing paths to citizenship for certain illegal aliens living in the country.